Naive measurements are still measurements. Personally, I would like to see more research into prediction as a science. It is difficult because you want to jump ahead decades, and five-year-out predictions have only so much value, but I (naively) predict that we'll get better at prediction the more we practice concretely doing so. I would (naively) expect that the data used to calibrate predictions would come from interviews with researchers paired with advanced psychology.

Plotting your personal rate of advancement against the team and the field, we predict a breakthrough in April of next year.

So, I can just slack off until then?

Not with that attitude.