A witty quote from an great book by a brilliant author is awesome, but does not have the status of any sort of law.
What do we mean by "normality"? What you observe around you every day? If you are wrong about the unobserved causal mechanisms underlying your observations, you will make wrong decisions. If you walk on hot coals because you believe God will not let you burn, the normality that quantum mechanics adds up to diverges enough from your normality that there will be tangible consequences. Are goals part of normality? If not, they certainly depend on assumptions you make about your model of normality. Either way, when you discover that God can't/won't make you fireproof, some subset of your goals will (and should) come tumbling down. This too has tangible consequences.
Some subset of the remaining goals relies on more subtle errors in your model of normality and they too will at some point crumble.
What evidence do we have that any goals at all are stable at every level? Why should the goals of a massive blob of atoms have such a universality?
I can see the point of "it all adds up to normality" if you're encouraging someone to not be reluctant to learn new facts. But how does it help answer the question of "what goal do we pursue if we find proof that all our goals are bullshit"?
My vague notion is that if your goals don't have ramifications in the realm of the normal, you're doing it wrong. If they do, and some aspect of your map upon which goals depend gets altered in a way that invalidates some of your goals, you can still look at the normal-realm ramifications and try to figure out if they are still things you want, and if so, what your goals are now in the new part of your map.
Keep in mind that your "map" here is not one fixed notion about the way the world works. It's a probability distribution over all the ways the...
In June 2012, Robin Hanson wrote a post promoting plastination as a superior to cryopreservation as an approach to preserving people for later uploading. His post included a paragraph which said:
This left me with the impression that the chances of the average cryopreserved person today of being later revived aren't great, even when you conditionalize on no existential catastrophe. More recently, I did a systematic read-through of the sequences for the first time (about a month 1/2 ago), and Eliezer's post You Only Live Twice convinced me to finally sign up for cryonics for three reasons:
I don't find that terribly encouraging. So now I'm back to being pessimistic about current cryopreservation techniques (though I'm still signing up for cryonics because the cost is low enough even given my current estimate of my chances). But I'd very much be curious to know if anyone knows what, say, Nick Bostrom or Anders Sandberg think about the issue. Anyone?
Edit: I'm aware of estimates given by LessWrong folks in the census of the chances of revival, but I don't know how much of that is people taking things like existential risk into account. There are lots of different ways you could arrive at a ~10% chance of revival overall:
is one way. But:
is a very similar conclusion from very different premises. Gwern has more on this sort of reasoning in Plastination versus cryonics, but I don't know who most of the people he links to are so I'm not sure whether to trust them. He does link to a breakdown of probabilities by Robin, but I don't fully understand the way Robin is breaking the issue down.