ChristianKl comments on Only You Can Prevent Your Mind From Getting Killed By Politics - Less Wrong

39 Post author: ChrisHallquist 26 October 2013 01:59PM

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Comment author: ChristianKl 27 October 2013 05:02:54AM *  2 points [-]

In this post I intend to reference the Lesswrong census. In it the question was worded:

P(Warming)
What is the probability that significant global warming is occurring or will soon occur, and is primarily caused by human actions?

Hopefully we will have another census this year. If you think that there is better question to get at the hard core of the global warming issue, I also invite you to make prediction about how such a question would correlate. The question could be added to the next poll and we could then see how the results of the question correlate.

Comment author: Lumifer 27 October 2013 05:18:09AM 3 points [-]

The way the question was worded it asked two different questions (maybe even three) and I'm not sure the respondents treated it as a logical expression along the lines of is.true((A OR B) AND C)...

I don't know what do you mean by the "hard core of the global warming issue".

Comment author: [deleted] 27 October 2013 04:31:05PM 2 points [-]

The way the question was worded it asked two different questions (maybe even three) and I'm not sure the respondents treated it as a logical expression along the lines of is.true((A OR B) AND C)...

That would probably correlate with rationality too.

Comment author: ChristianKl 28 October 2013 02:22:19PM 1 point [-]

I'm not responsible for the question being worded the way it is. I don't think the wording is optimal.

If you think the question gets interpreted by different people in a different way, propose a better question to measure global warming beliefs for the next census.

Comment author: Lumifer 28 October 2013 03:51:07PM 3 points [-]

propose a better question to measure global warming beliefs

The first question is what is it that you want to measure.

Comment author: JoshuaZ 28 October 2013 02:28:42PM 1 point [-]

Whether you are responsible or not is distinct from whether it will do a good job measuring what you want it to measure.

Comment author: ChristianKl 28 October 2013 04:07:19PM 0 points [-]

Whether you are responsible or not is distinct from whether it will do a good job measuring what you want it to measure.

Responsibility changes the meaning of the word 'good'. If I design something to measure Y I have a higher standard for 'good' than when I search for an already existing measure of Y.

If people who read the post say: "I don't think IQ correlates with the answer of that question" that an answer that moves the discussion forward.

If they say: "I think IQ correlates with the answer to a differently worded question about global warming" that also moves the discussion forward. We can test that hypothesis in the next census.

If you don't like IQ as proxy than we had the CFAR questions in the last census to measure rationality. They are also not perfect and we can think up a better metric for the next census.