Vaniver comments on Only You Can Prevent Your Mind From Getting Killed By Politics - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (143)
I've seen experiments that tested this; I thought they were mentioned in Thinking and Deciding or Thinking Fast and Slow, but I didn't see it in a quick check of either of those. If I recall the experimental setup correctly (I doubt I got the numbers right), they began with a sequence that was 80% red and 20% blue, which switched to being 80% blue and 20% red after n draws. The subjects' estimate that the next draw would be red stayed above 50% for significantly longer than n draws from the second distribution, and some took until 2n or 3n draws from the second distribution to assign 50% chance to each, at which point almost two thirds of the examples they had seen were blue!