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b1shop comments on Bayesianism for Humans - Less Wrong

52 Post author: ChrisHallquist 29 October 2013 11:54PM

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Comment author: b1shop 31 October 2013 03:27:36PM 0 points [-]

This was a great post. I'll use it to introduce people to key concepts in the future.

Many of these focus on the posterior's first moment. For continuous distributions, the higher moments matter, too. A test that I expected to lower the variance in my posterior would be considered "confirming" as I use the word. I can't lower the variance before the test is done because it's still possible the mean will change.