gwern comments on Open Thread, October 27 - 31, 2013 - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (382)
I don't believe that for a second and you should apply a little more critical thought to these numbers. What experts? What are they basing this on? Searching for this, I find nothing but echo chambers of media articles - "experts say", "some experts think", etc. Is 15 million remotely plausible? There are ~232m adults in the US, half are married, so 15m swingers would imply that 13% of marriages are open.
Slightly better are 'estimates' (or was it 'a study'?) attributed to the Kinsey Institute of 2-4% of married couples being swingers, but that's also quoted as '2-4m' (a bit different) and one commenter even quotes it as 2-4% being 'the BDSM and swing communities', which reduces the size even more. All irrelevant, since I am unable to track down any study or official statement from Kinsey so I can't even look at the methodology or assumptions they made to get those supposed numbers.
Fair point - the exact number wasn't very important for my argument (I believe it would still carry even with the 2-4% or 2-4m figure), so I just grabbed the first figure I found. It passed my initial sanity check because I interpreted the "couples" to include "non-married couples", and misremembered the US population to be 500 million rather than 300 million. (~4% of the adult population being swingers didn't sound too unreasonable.)