SaidAchmiz comments on Rationality Quotes December 2013 - Less Wrong

7 Post author: Cyan 17 December 2013 08:43PM

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Comment author: SaidAchmiz 02 December 2013 05:45:41PM *  5 points [-]

Indeed. To expand on that a bit more:

The titular phrase is a line in the book, something that Rumata thinks to himself while attempting to explain, for the twentieth, futile, time, to one of the natives (a populist revolutionary leader of sorts) that he is not a god; and that, though he does possess great and awesome powers (i.e. advanced weaponry), he refuses to provide them to the natives. The constraints here are not just practical, but moral:

— Don Rumata, do you remember how disappointed I was, when I found out who you are? I hate priests, and it galls me that their deceitful tales have turned out to be true. But a poor rebel must extract a benefit from any circumstance. The priests say that the gods wield bolts of lightning... Don Rumata, I am in great need of lightning bolts, to smash the walls of the castles.
Rumata sighed deeply. After his miraculous helicopter rescue, Arata had insistently demanded answers. Rumata attempted to explain, he even pointed out Sol in the night sky - a distant, barely visible star. But the rebel understood only one thing: the cursed priests are right, beyond the heavenly firmanent indeed live gods, benevolent and all-powerful. And from then on every conversation with Rumata he reduced to one thing: god, since you do exist, give me your power, as that is the best that you can do.
And each time Rumata kept silent, or shifted the conversation to another topic.
- Don Rumata, - said the rebel, - why do you not want to help us?
...
- Let's not speak of this.
- No, we will speak of it. I didn't call you here. I never prayed to anyone. You came to me on your own. Or did you merely wish to amuse yourself?
It's hard to be a god, thought Rumata. He said patiently:
- You won't understand. I've tried twenty times to explain to you that I am not a god; still you don't believe me. And you will not understand why I can't help you with weapons...
- You have lightning bolts?
- I can't give you lightning.
- I have heard this twenty times already, - said Arata. - Now I want to know: why?
- I say again: you won't understand.
- Try.
- What will you do with lightning bolts?
- I will incinerate the gilded scum, like bugs, every one of them, their entire cursed bloodlines to the twelfth scion. I will wipe their castles from the face of the earth. I will burn their armies and all those who defend and support them. You need not worry - your lightning bolts will serve only good, and when there remain on earth only liberated slaves and peace reigns, I will return your lightning to you and will never ask for it again.
Arata fell silent, breathing heavily. His face had darkened from a rush of blood. Likely he was already seeing the duchies and kingdoms in flames, and piles of scorched bodies among the ruins, and huge armies of the victors, feverishly howling: "Freedom! Freedom!"
- No, - said Rumata. - I will not give you lightning. That would be a mistake. Try to believe me, I see further than you do... (Arata listened, his head dropped to his chest.) - Rumata clenched his fingers. - I will give you only one argument. It is nothing compared to the main one, but at least you will understand it. You are a survivor, dear Arata, but you are also mortal; and if you perish, if the lightning bolts pass into other hands, ones not so clean as yours, then I fear even to think how it may end...
...
Arata fell silent and again reached for the bread. Rumata looked at the other's fingers, devoid of nails. His fingernails had been torn out, with a special device for that purpose, two years ago, by Don Reba personally. You don't yet know, thought Rumata. You still console yourself with the thought that only you yourself are destined for defeat. You don't yet know how hopeless are your efforts. You don't yet know that the enemy is not so much around your soldiers, as within them. You might, perhaps, topple the Order, and a wave of peasant revolts will carry you onto the throne of Arkanar; you will raze the nobles' castles, drown the barons in the Strait, and the rebellious people will grant you every honor as a great liberator, and you will be kind and wise - the only kind and wise person in your kingdom. And in your kindness you will start giving out lands to your comrades, and what use are lands to them without serfs? And the wheel will begin to turn the other way. And it will be a good thing if you manage to die in your own time, and do not live to see the rise of new dukes and barons from the ranks of your former loyal fighters. So it has already happened, my dear Arata, on Earth and on your own planet.

Comment author: dspeyer 04 December 2013 07:10:23PM 2 points [-]

Especially since he had mixed feelings on the subject, anyway. On the one hand, he thought the Polish situation did not lend itself well to military solutions. On the other hand . . .

Who could say for sure? The old saying "you can't export a revolution with bayonets" certainly had some truth. But a lot of it was just wishful thinking, too. Mike had read a great deal of history since the Ring of Fire, and one of the things he couldn't help notice was how often history was shaped by the outcome of wars. Napoleon was often denounced as a tyrant, but the fact remained that many of the revolutionary changes he made were not overturned after his defeat—not even by those he'd defeated and forced to accept those changes.

So . . . There was no way of knowing the outcome of a war between the USE and Poland. If was possible, in the event of a clearcut USE victory, that serfdom in eastern Europe would be destroyed. Not by Gustav Adolf and his armies, maybe. But one thing you could be sure of was that Gretchen Richter and her Committees of Correspondence would be coming into Poland on the heels of those armies. And they hated serfdom with a passion.

--1635 The Eastern Front

Even if all Rumata has are a few history books and overwhelming weaponery, he should be able to make some solid improvements in the social organization. And if he has the full backing of a spacefaring civilization, he should be able to do a lot.

I haven't read Hard to be a God (it does sound interesting), but my proposal:

  • First enough productive giveaways that there's a surplus worth speaking of. It has to exist before the people can keep it.
  • Then establish and protect a communications network. One armored internet terminal per tavern, perhaps. Create forums the powerful can't sensor. Publish some history and organization textbooks so that people get used to the idea that better things are possible.
  • Declare some meta-laws, like due process, no ex-post-facto, public jury trials... Make them mild enough that rulers consider them acceptable. Enforce them ruthlessly.
  • Publish relevant science and technology books.
  • This should be enough to see the beginnings of a middle class. Place them under your protection.
  • Whenever there's a succession crisis (those are common) declare a republic in the region. Crush any attempt to end it violently using overwhelming force. At first, you'll need to do a lot of work teaching people how to have a republic and enforcing things, but you should be able to back off as they learn.

Basically plagiarize shamelessly from the nicer parts of history and keep your eyes open for how to use what you have.

Comment author: Lumifer 04 December 2013 07:34:25PM 2 points [-]

I haven't read Hard to be a God (it does sound interesting), but my proposal

I do recommend the book. It's not at all about sociotechnical difficulties of uplifting a medieval society...

Comment author: Eugine_Nier 05 December 2013 05:46:36AM -1 points [-]

Whenever there's a succession crisis (those are common) declare a republic in the region.

Proceed to become horrified by the actions of the demagogues voted into office.

Comment author: SaidAchmiz 05 December 2013 04:22:19AM *  1 point [-]

As Lumifer alludes to, your proposals, while interesting, solve problems other than the ones faced by Rumata. Here's the key issue:

Rumata is not allowed to visibly interfere with the social structure of the society he is trying to "uplift". He can work only subtly, in the shadows, disguised as one of the locals, such that his actions are indistinguishable to even (most of) his local allies from the actions of a bored, eccentric aristocraft. He is not allowed to kill. One of his colleagues describes their work as "not even sowing, but only preparing the soil to be sowed"; slowly nudging the society's development in the right direction, without the local population suspecting a thing.


More details for the curious:

Hard to Be a God takes place in the Noon Universe, a fictional timeline of the future shared among many of the Strugatskys' novels. One of the core concepts in the Noon Universe is that of the "progressors", professional uplifters of sorts, who infiltrate less-advanced societies and work from within to steer them in the progressive, idealized-technocratic-communist direction (which is how Earth has developed, in this fictional world).

The events of Hard to Be a God happen early in that timeline, where the ideology behind progressorism has not yet fully developed; where humanity is still unsure whether we have the moral right to interfere in alien societies at all. Rumata and his colleagues sometimes refer to themselves as "historians"; nominally, they are there to study the alien society; their actions are tightly constrained by the rules that govern their profession. Rumata is one of the first who takes actions that push the limits of his mandate. (Exactly how far he ends up going, or not going, is a plot point.)

There is also this (Rumata's senior colleague, Don Kondor a.k.a. Aleksandr Vasilievich, lecturing Rumata on the problems with direct action):

"You must, after all, firmly understand that neither you, nor I, nor any of us, will ever see any truly visible fruits of our work. We are not physicists; we are historians. Our unit of time is not the second, it is the year, and our work is not even sowing, but only preparing the soil to be sowed. We sometimes get, coming from Earth... enthusiasts, devil take them... sprinters with low stamina..."

Rumata smiled crookedly and for no particular reason set about pulling up his boots. Sprinters. Yes, there had been sprinters.

Ten years ago Stefan Orlovsky, alias don Kapada, commander of a crossbow company of His Imperial Highness, during the public torture of eighteen Estorian witches ordered his soldiers to open fire on the executioners, slaughtered the imperial judge and two deputies, and was taken at spearpoint by the castle guards. As he died, writhing in agony, he screamed "You're human beings! Get them, get them!", but few heard him over the roar of the crowd: "Fire! More fire!.."

Approximately at the same time, in the opposite hemisphere, Karl Rosenblum, one of the greatest scholars of the peasant wars of Germany and France, also known as the the fur trader Pani-Pa, raised a rebellion of Murissite peasants, took two cities by storm and was killed by an arrow in the back of the neck while trying to put a stop to looting. He was still alive when they came for him by helicopter, but could not speak, and only had a guilty and perplexed look in his big blue eyes, from which continuously flowed tears...

And not long before Rumata's arrival, the incredibly well-disguised confidant of the Kaisanian tyrant (Jeremy Tafnat, a specialist in the history of land reforms) suddenly, out of nowhere, organized a palace coup, usurped the throne, for two months tried to start a Golden Age, stubbornly ignored the furious communiques of his neighbors and of Earth, gained fame as a madman, by good fortune avoided eight assassination attempts, was at last kidnapped by an emergency team of agents of the Institute and sent by submarine to the island base near the South Pole...

"And to think!" — muttered Rumata. — "All of Earth still thinks that the hardest problems are the domain of the null-physicists..."

Basically, the novel is rather pessimistic about human nature, and in particular the likelihood that inhabitants of medieval societies will respond to well-meaning liberators by embracing freedom, equality, and brotherhood. (Finding examples from the real world to support, or oppose, such pessismism are left as an exercise for the reader.)

Comment author: Bugmaster 06 December 2013 12:50:45AM 1 point [-]

As I said in the comment above, I highly recommend reading the sequel ("Beetle in an anthill", or something like that in English), in order to understand what uplift might look like from the other end. It's not all roses.

Comment author: Luke_A_Somers 21 December 2013 03:46:37PM 1 point [-]

Not being uplifted isn't exactly roses either.

Comment author: SaidAchmiz 06 December 2013 05:25:54AM 1 point [-]

I don't know that I'd call Beetle in the Anthill a sequel to Hard to Be a God, per se (except insofar as they both take place in the Noon Universe), but yes, I agree with the recommendation. The sequel to Beetle, which I believe is called Time Wanderers in English (Waves Silence the Wind in Russian), illustrates this even more starkly.

Comment author: shminux 05 December 2013 07:09:43PM *  -1 points [-]

the novel is rather pessimistic about human nature

Seems rather realistic to me, actually. Do you know of many examples where "well-meaning liberators" did not end up causing more suffering shortly after their intervention (or forced withdrawal)?

Comment author: Izeinwinter 27 December 2013 12:14:51PM 1 point [-]

There are some, but mostly they are cases of "local situation deteriorated to the point of piles of skulls" prior to the intervention, so foreigners stomping around were welcomed instead of shot at.

Comment author: TheOtherDave 05 December 2013 07:19:02PM 1 point [-]

Does technological development count as well-meaning intervention?

Comment author: shminux 05 December 2013 10:29:44PM -1 points [-]

I am not sure what you mean here. Is it introducing new technologies as a part of a conquest, like the British did in India?

Comment author: TheOtherDave 05 December 2013 11:23:42PM 1 point [-]

No, I just mean developing new technologies. That is, at time T this community doesn't have the technology, then someone intervenes, and at time T+1 the community does have the technology.

If that's out of scope for the kind of interventions you're asking about, that's fine, but if it isn't, then I suspect there are plenty of examples where well-meaning folk end up not causing more suffering after their intervention in a community.

Comment author: SaidAchmiz 06 December 2013 12:32:47AM 0 points [-]

I think to answer that, we'd need to be clear about what we mean by saying that a community "has" a technology.

If I go to a tribe of hunter-gatherers, hand them a bunch of solar-powered toasters, and leave... do they now "have toaster technology"?

I think not. I'd have to think a bit harder to define exactly what I would consider to be "having technology", but my intuition says that being able to build the thing, and/or having people in your society who understand how it works, is a requirement.

To our hypothetical hunter-gatherers, the toasters are outright magic. They haven't the first clue of the most basic scientific or technological principles behind the artifacts that are in their physical possession.

So I'd have to ask what you think is an example of an intervention that causes a community to have a technology, where previously they did not.

Comment author: TheOtherDave 06 December 2013 01:38:24AM 3 points [-]

Jiro's example of making mobile phones available to a town that lacks the facilities for building its own mobile phones (factories, etc) seems to me a good enough example of an intervention that causes a community to have a technology they previously lacked.

Comment author: SaidAchmiz 06 December 2013 05:32:49AM 1 point [-]

Sure. Note, though, that what you're doing there is effectively making said town part of your community (in the context of who "has" what technology, in any case).

Consider these scenarios:

You show up to some remote island, build a bunch of cell towers, hand out mobile phones, and leave, never to be seen again.

vs.

You show up to the neighboring town, build a bunch of cell towers, which you connect to your own cell network, hand out mobile phones, and continue to administer and maintain said towers, and provide support for said phones.

In the latter case, yeah, this community now has cell phone technology. But only because they're a part of you now. If you cut them off from yourself — by ceasing to provide maintenance and support for the technology you just gave them — they no longer have any technology, just a bunch of artifacts which work (for a while, anyway), but are as magic.

Comment author: Jiro 06 December 2013 01:00:26AM 2 points [-]

In the present day, the average third world country doesn't "have" cell phones, by this definition. In fact, the average first world inner city doesn't have them either.

Comment author: Bugmaster 06 December 2013 05:05:52AM 0 points [-]

I think this is perfectly reasonable, though it could be argued that the first world inner city does not really constitute a fully separate culture.

Comment author: shminux 06 December 2013 01:20:52AM *  -1 points [-]

I agree that organic technological development is beneficial on the whole, with some exceptions. It's the "prime directive violations" which backfire nearly uniformly. And that's what the story is about, if I recall (been many years since I read it).

Comment author: SaidAchmiz 05 December 2013 11:14:50PM 0 points [-]

I agree, shminux. By "pessimistic" I didn't mean to imply "unrealistically pessimistic". The Strugatskys' views were well-informed by both history and contemporary events (Russian/Soviet policies in the Caucasus and Central Asia, to name one example relevant to this case).

Comment author: Desrtopa 05 December 2013 07:29:49PM *  0 points [-]

I believe that Yvain cited an example of such on his blog, but I think that it was on the older one whose contents have been recently deleted. It was a recent one, and the "liberators" were the French, but I don't recall enough relevant info to google it.

Comment author: Vaniver 05 December 2013 09:25:37PM 0 points [-]

He did recently mention the British conquest of Afghanistan vs. the American conquest of Afghanistan, but that was mostly the question of how quickly and successfully the country was pacified, not liberated.

Comment author: Desrtopa 05 December 2013 09:27:33PM 0 points [-]

This was definitely a different example than that, and drew on more recent history than the British conquest of Afghanistan.

Comment author: shminux 04 December 2013 08:22:01PM *  -1 points [-]

This plan is full of good intentions... Try conducting a premortem on each one.