satt comments on New Year's Prediction Thread (2014) - Less Wrong

9 Post author: Thomas 01 January 2014 09:38AM

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Comment author: satt 08 January 2014 01:21:12AM 0 points [-]

No idea (Yvain hasn't said yet), but presumably some time this year!

But I can try to guess. In 2012, Yvain apparently closed the survey on November 26 and reported the results on December 7. In 2011, the survey closed on December 3 and Yvain reported results on December 5. And in 2009, Yvain announced the survey on May 3 and posted its results on May 12. So for those surveys, it's been 11 days, 2 days, and ≈9 days between when the survey closed and when Yvain posted results, and I'd guess that 2-11 days after Yvain closes last year's survey (which he hasn't yet), he'll post its results.

(Maybe I should make that a formal prediction? "2-11 days after Yvain closes the current LW survey, he'll post the results (80%).")