Relevant previous LW posts on the A_p distribution and model stability
http://lesswrong.com/lw/igv/probability_knowledge_and_metaprobability/
http://lesswrong.com/lw/h78/estimate_stability/
http://lesswrong.com/lw/hnf/model_stability_in_intervention_assessment/
Formatting note: something seems to have deleted a couple of your time units:
and