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Lumifer comments on Open Thread for January 8 - 16 2014 - Less Wrong
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And how will this happen? The productivity growth has slowed down considerably and shows no signs of picking up, never mind "vastly increasing".
Well, there was at least one report suggesting that half of all jobs might be automated over the next two decades.
You are overstating the report's conclusions -- it said the "jobs might be at risk" which sounds to me like "we want to sound impressive but actually don't have anything to say".
I've paged through the report and wasn't impressed. For example (emphasis mine), "...First, together with a group of ML researchers, we subjectively hand-labelled 70 occupations, assigning 1 if automatable, and 0 if not. ... Our label assignments were based on eyeballing the O∗NET tasks and job description of each occupation." Essentially this a bunch of guesses and opinions with little support in the way of evidence.