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Sewing-Machine comments on AALWA: Ask any LessWronger anything - Less Wrong
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I don't know if this is what Nier has in mind, but it reminds me of Cramer's random model for the primes. There is a 100 per cent chance that 758705024863 is prime, but it is very often useful to regard it as the output of a random process. Here's an example of the model in action.
I am aware of "logical uncertainty", etc. However I think uncertainty and causality are orthogonal (some probabilistic models aren't causal, and some causal models, e.g. circuit models, have no uncertainty in them).