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Thoughts on civilization collapse

13 Post author: Stuart_Armstrong 04 May 2017 10:41AM

Epistemic status: an idea I believe moderately strongly, based on extensive reading but not rigorous analysis.

We may have a dramatically wrong idea of civilization collapse, mainly inspired by movies that obsess over dramatic tales of individual heroism.

 

Traditional view:

In a collapse, anarchy will break out, and it will be a war of all against all or small groups against small groups. Individual weaponry (including heavy weapons) and basic food production will become paramount; traditional political skills, not so much. Government collapse is long term. Towns and cities will suffer more than the countryside. The best course of action is to have a cache of weapons and food, and to run for the hills.

 

Alternative view:

In a collapse, people will cling to their identified tribe for protection. Large groups will have no difficulty suppressing or taking over individuals and small groups within their areas of influence. Individual weaponry may be important (given less of a police force), but heavy weaponry will be almost irrelevant as no small group will survive alone. Food production will be controlled by the large groups. Though the formal "government" may fall, and countries may splinter into more local groups, government will continue under the control of warlords, tribal elders, or local variants. Cities, with their large and varied-skill workforce, will suffer less than the countryside. The best course of action is to have a stash of minor luxury goods (solar-powered calculators, comic books, pornography, batteries, antiseptics) and to make contacts with those likely to become powerful after a collapse (army officers, police chiefs, religious leaders, influential families).

Possible sources to back up this alternative view:

  • The book Sapiens argues that governments and markets are the ultimate enablers of individualism, with extended-family-based tribalism as the "natural" state of humanity.
  • The history of Somalia demonstrates that laws and enforcement continue even after a government collapse, by going back to more traditional structures.
  • During China's period of anarchy, large groups remained powerful: the nationalists, the communists, the Japanese invaders. The other sections of the country were generally under the control of local warlords.
  • Rational Wiki argues that examples of collapse go against the individualism narrative.

 

Comments (75)

Comment author: Daniel_Burfoot 04 May 2017 07:19:31PM 7 points [-]

Most of the pessimistic people I talk to don't think the government will collapse. It will just get increasingly stagnant, oppressive and incompetent, and that incompetence will make it impossible for individual or corporate innovators to do anything worthwhile. Think European-style tax rates, with American-style low quality of public services.

There will also be a blurring of the line between the government and big corporations. Corporations will essentially become extensions of the bureaucracy. Because of this they will never go out of business and they will also never innovate. Think of a world where all corporations are about as competent as AmTrak.

Comment author: tukabel 04 May 2017 08:15:38PM 7 points [-]

hmm, blurred lines between corporations and political power... are you suggesting EU is already a failed state? (contrary to the widespread belief that we are just heading towards the cliff damn fast)

well, unlike Somalia, where no goverment means there is no border control and you can be robbed, raped or killed on the street anytime....

in civilized Europe our eurosocialist etatists achieved that... there are nor borders for invading millions of crimmigrants that may rob/rape/kill you anytime day or night... and as a bonus we have merkelterrorists that kill by hundreds sometimes (yeah, these uncivilized Somalis did not even manage this... what a shame, they certainly need more cultural marxist education)

Comment author: Stuart_Armstrong 05 May 2017 12:02:28PM *  6 points [-]

It's comments like this that make me pine for the downvote button. Please keep your points specific and precise, free of vague and vast politicking.

Comment author: Thomas 05 May 2017 01:30:16PM 7 points [-]

You have started with "politicking". Now you don't like that anymore?

Too bad!

Comment author: Lumifer 05 May 2017 05:47:19PM 4 points [-]

Political discussion is mostly fine as long as it is reasonable. tukabel's comment looks like kekistani babble to me and it doesn't do well on the reasonableness metric.

Comment author: Thomas 05 May 2017 05:55:41PM 7 points [-]

Political discussion is prone to be look like "kekistani bable" if you disagree. But once you've started a political discussion there will be some disagreement which will be interpreted as "kekistani bable" - or worse.

By every side in this discussion.

Comment author: Lumifer 05 May 2017 06:10:06PM 2 points [-]

Political discussion is prone to be look like "kekistani bable" if you disagree

That's not true at all. Within pretty much any political ideology you can find grunt-and-scream babble (kekistani babble in alt-right, sjw babble in progressive, exploitation babble in marxist, etc.) and you can find reasonable people making reasonable points.

It's not an issue of agreeing or disagreeing, it's an issue of the level of the discussion.

Comment author: Thomas 05 May 2017 08:29:41PM 5 points [-]

Well, I haven't seen that yet. I mean a reasonable discussion between different political affiliations. Inside one camp, yes. Across some wider divisions, not yet.

Emotions are just too strong, reasons are just too flimsy.

Comment author: Luke_A_Somers 20 May 2017 11:25:08PM 2 points [-]

So, how do you characterize 'Merkelterrorists' and 'crimmigrants'? Terms of reasonable discourse?

Comment author: lmn 21 May 2017 02:21:56AM 3 points [-]

And you think your concern trolling is contributing to reasonable discourse?

Comment author: Luke_A_Somers 05 May 2017 02:16:01PM 0 points [-]

Seems to me like Daniel started it.

Comment author: Thomas 05 May 2017 05:05:56PM 6 points [-]

Perhaps. But doesn't matter who started.

Stuart Armstrong has a lot of excellent posts about AI. But every now and then he thinks, that he should do some politics. Which is also a good decision. But then he argues from a (liberal) default, which is not as clever as his AI related views. By far.

This is from my POV, of course.

Comment author: Luke_A_Somers 13 May 2017 07:23:02PM *  1 point [-]

This is utterly LUDICROUS.

Look at what happened. tukabel wrote a post of rambling, grammar-impaired, hysteria-mongering hyperbole: 'invading millions of crimmigrants that may rob/rape/kill you anytime day or night'.This is utterly unquestionably NOT a rationally presented point on politics, and it does not belong on this forum, and it deserves to be downvoted into oblivion.

Stuart said he wished to be able to downvote it.

Then out of nowhere you come in and blame him personally or starting something he manifestly didn't start. It's a 100% false comment.

Upon being called out on this, you backtrack and say your earlier point didn't actually matter (meaning it was bullshit to begin with), complaining that he's gasp liberal.

But here it didn't take being liberal to want to downvote. If I agreed 100% with tukabel, I would be freaking EMBARRASSED to have that argument presented on my side. It was a really bad comment!

Comment author: Thomas 13 May 2017 09:15:34PM 5 points [-]

That much anger, for what? What does it mean?

Comment author: Luke_A_Somers 19 May 2017 12:07:43AM 1 point [-]

Spreading this shitty argumentation in a place that had otherwise been quite clean, that's what's gotten under my skin.

Comment author: Thomas 19 May 2017 07:04:38AM 6 points [-]

This is not a good argumentation, at all. "It use to be fine, until I was offended by that".

It was never really fine. At first, the politics were pretty much prohibited as a "mindkiller", this was the rule of the game here. Then the standard PC views became accepted, as a kind of a default. Then some reactionaries put their views on a display and shortly after went away.

Now, the unspoken norm is to not go too far away from the PC platform, again?

Comment author: lmn 15 May 2017 10:58:48PM 4 points [-]

'invading millions of crimmigrants that may rob/rape/kill you anytime day or night'

Well, they are in fact robbing, killing, and raping people, and the authorities are remarkably uninterested in doing anything about it besides accusing the victims of "racism". In fact in most western European countries some who says something mean about the migrants gets a harsher sentence then a migrant who engages in robbing, killing, or raping.

This is utterly unquestionably NOT a rationally presented point on politics

Why not? Because he said something false? A better question is why you refer to the truth as "hysteria-mongering hyperbole"?

Comment author: Lumifer 16 May 2017 01:41:08AM *  1 point [-]

they are in fact robbing, killing, and raping people

Just like the the natives :-/

in most western European countries some who says something mean about the migrants gets a harsher sentence

Bullshit. Yes, I know, there are cherries you can pick. Still bullshit.

Why not? Because he said something false?

That too, but mostly because the content of this rant was "I don't like immigrants" and that was basically it. Adding a lot of emotionally coloured words just makes it look like a temper tantrum.

It is possible to rationally discuss the issue of immigration in Western Europe -- basically, the Europeans are not breeding (TFR is way under 2.0 in most countries) and more warm bodies do help with the economy. But the IQ and cultural issues are a big deal. The problem is complicated and crimmigrant rants do not help.

Japan is leading the way on the "we don't reproduce and no immigrants are allowed" path. Wait a bit and things will become clearer.

Comment author: lmn 16 May 2017 07:55:32AM 4 points [-]

they are in fact robbing, killing, and raping people

Just like the the natives :-/

There is a significant qualitative difference in amount here.

in most western European countries some who says something mean about the migrants gets a harsher sentence

Bullshit. Yes, I know, there are cherries you can pick. Still bullshit.

So basically you're conceding I'm right, but still want to call bullshit on it. Sounds like a classic sign of cognitive dissonance.

Japan is leading the way on the "we don't reproduce and no immigrants are allowed" path. Wait a bit and things will become clearer.

Well, so far they aren't experiencing a huge increase rape and general crime.

Comment author: Stuart_Armstrong 05 May 2017 01:37:21PM *  0 points [-]

Can you explain what you mean? As far as I know, different views of civilization collapses don't lie on any strong political fault-lines.

Comment author: Thomas 05 May 2017 02:10:26PM 7 points [-]

A political action is everything what a civilization does. Has no other language to speak, but politics.

And it matters a lot what it does. If our (western) civilization is to survive, it has to do the right things - politically. To avoid fundamental political questions is not only silly to try, but impossible.

Comment author: ChristianKl 21 May 2017 09:06:21AM 1 point [-]

Actually, it's not really needed. When Eugine uses a new account we can also ban/delete the post.

Comment author: lmn 05 May 2017 04:41:54AM *  6 points [-]

Cities, with their large and varied-skill workforce, will suffer less than the countryside.

I agree with your post except for this. Based on reading post-WWII accounts of Germany and Japan, when the economic/trade system breaks down, it becomes hard to get food if you don't live where it's being grown.

Comment author: Stuart_Armstrong 05 May 2017 06:47:52AM 0 points [-]

Good examples.

Comment author: Lumifer 04 May 2017 02:43:46PM 6 points [-]

Traditional view

You mean "convenient for story-telling", right?

In a collapse, people will cling to their identified tribe for protection. Large groups will have no difficulty suppressing or taking over individuals and small groups within their areas of influence. Individual weaponry may be important (given less of a police force), but heavy weaponry will be almost irrelevant as no small group will survive alone. Food production will be controlled by the large groups.

As far as I can see you are just describing typical human political arrangements. In particular, this fits the contemporary situation quite well.

Where is the "collapse" part?

Comment author: Stuart_Armstrong 04 May 2017 07:29:23PM 2 points [-]

As far as I can see you are just describing typical human political arrangements. In particular, this fits the contemporary situation quite well.

Indeed. After the collapse, things will be... typical, in many ways.

Comment author: Lumifer 04 May 2017 07:49:50PM 0 points [-]

After the collapse, things will be... typical, in many ways.

So we are talking about the collapse of what?

Comment author: Stuart_Armstrong 05 May 2017 01:13:11PM 1 point [-]

States, systems of government, current technological civilizations, those kind of things.

Comment author: Lumifer 05 May 2017 05:38:00PM 1 point [-]

You are not making much sense. "Those kind of things" are very different.

States collapse (historically) often -- e.g. Somalia. Systems of government collapse occasionally -- e.g. USSR. None of these events are usually described as a "civilization collapse".

I don't know of any case of the collapse of a technological civilization. If you want to stretch the definition of "technological" you can find something in the BC eras, but that isn't very relevant. And you still haven't answered the question: what exactly will collapse? "Civilization" is a very handwavy answer.

Comment author: lmn 08 May 2017 03:56:50AM 2 points [-]

I don't know of any case of the collapse of a technological civilization. If you want to stretch the definition of "technological" you can find something in the BC eras, but that isn't very relevant.

So what's your definition of a "technological civilization"? Can you give another example of one? Otherwise this sounds like your arguing that you are immortal because no one exactly like you has ever died.

For example, lead and copper production create characteristic types of atmospheric pollution so we can get estimates for historical world production levels from Greenland ice cores. The resulting graph for lead shows two peaks, corresponding to ancient Rome and modern civilization. The graph for copper shows three peaks, the two for lead and also Song dynasty China. The peaks are surrounded by troughs, eg, world lead production wouldn't return to Roman levels until the 18th century, so in that sense we can objectively say that technological civilizations have collapsed in the past.

Comment author: Lumifer 08 May 2017 02:40:49PM 0 points [-]

So what's your definition of a "technological civilization"?

For the purposes of this discussion I'll define it as a civilization sufficiently advanced to be become global. The relevant point is that no local calamity will extinguish it, you need a planet-wide adverse event to collapse it. I think XVII century and later would count as such.

Dying out of local societies, cultures, cities, states, etc. has, of course, been a very common occurrence throughout history.

Comment author: lmn 08 May 2017 10:56:07PM 0 points [-]

For the purposes of this discussion I'll define it as a civilization sufficiently advanced to be become global. The relevant point is that no local calamity will extinguish it,

The problem is that the global nature of civilization can also cause calamities to become global.

The Roman Empire was more global than its predecessors but was still fallen mainly by internally generated calamities.

Comment author: Lumifer 09 May 2017 12:37:54AM 1 point [-]

Life is not static. All empires fall eventually.

One generation passeth away, and another generation cometh: but the earth abideth for ever.

The sun also ariseth, and the sun goeth down, and hasteth to his place where he arose.

The wind goeth toward the south, and turneth about unto the north; it whirleth about continually, and the wind returneth again according to his circuits.

All the rivers run into the sea; yet the sea is not full; unto the place from whence the rivers come, thither they return again.

All things are full of labour; man cannot utter it: the eye is not satisfied with seeing, nor the ear filled with hearing.

The thing that hath been, it is that which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done: and there is no new thing under the sun.

Comment author: Stuart_Armstrong 06 May 2017 11:02:37AM 0 points [-]
Comment author: Lumifer 06 May 2017 03:40:19PM 0 points [-]

There is that sentence in the post you're replying to:

If you want to stretch the definition of "technological" you can find something in the BC eras, but that isn't very relevant.

Comment author: Stuart_Armstrong 07 May 2017 07:47:43PM 0 points [-]

I'm not sure what you are arguing here. I think there's a large but vague concept of societal/civilization/technological collapse that people have in mind; something involving a dramatic reduction in living standards, technological regression, more simplified society, civil wars, etc... There's also a bunch of partial examples, the older ones in that link, and more recent ones like China in the 1930s, Somalia more recently, Japan and Germany at the end of WW2, and a few others.

I'm pointing out that some common ideas about the features of these collapse seem to be wrong.

Now, if you want to give the idea a more thorough analysis, please do so! If you're saying the concept is unclear, I agree. If you say it covers examples that don't belong in the same category, then separate them. If you're arguing that actually civilizations don't/won't collapse the way they used to - then that's a view I have partial sympathy with, and would love to see proved or disproved.

Go ahead and un-wave my hand at this answer.

Comment author: Lumifer 07 May 2017 10:18:35PM *  1 point [-]

I'm arguing that you're thinking about fiction plots and, moreover, doing so in a fuzzy and not terribly coherent way. People do have a vague concept of a civilization collapse, but they also have vague concepts of aliens in flying saucers abducting humans and livestock.

None of your recent examples is called a collapse of a civilization and they do not match your "vague concept" anyway.

I'm pointing out that some common ideas about the features of these collapse seem to be wrong.

You're vaguely waving your hand in the direction of a certain genre of fiction and declare that those people got it wrong. That seems silly on its face to me. Genre tropes are not "correct" or "wrong".

If you are critiquing real analyses of potential aftermath scenarios, please link to them.

to give the idea a more thorough analysis

I don't see any idea other than that you find dystopian tropes, ahem, unrealistic.

You could talk, instead, about much more specific scenarios. For example, defeat in a war (Germany, Japan). Or failure of the political structures (USSR). Or inability to maintain any sort of a centralized control (Somalia). They do not fit your "vague concept", but they have a big advantage of having actually happened.

Comment author: Dagon 05 May 2017 10:03:02PM 0 points [-]

I'll take a shot at it. What may collapse is the ability of any significant group of humans (say 100K+) to coordinate and to feel secure enough that they can specialize deeply enough to make digital watches.

Comment author: Lumifer 06 May 2017 12:09:49AM 0 points [-]

That's a consequence. What is the cause?

Comment author: username2 08 May 2017 12:19:16PM 0 points [-]

Asteroid impact on scale of dinosaur killer. Super volcanic eruption. Regular eruption under Antarctic ice sheets or the middle of Greenland raise water levels by 10m. Total nuclear war between the U.S. and Russia.

I'm all of these cases actual societal collapse would be caused by sudden worldwide famine, not the disaster itself.

I do think you can find examples of societal breakdown in the recent past if you narrow yourself to consider local regions, such as various failed colonies, New Orleans in the days following Katrina, or Somalia or parts of Iraq.

Comment author: Lumifer 08 May 2017 02:55:33PM *  0 points [-]

Asteroid impact on scale of dinosaur killer. Super volcanic eruption. Regular eruption under Antarctic ice sheets or the middle of Greenland raise water levels by 10m. Total nuclear war between the U.S. and Russia.

As an aside, one of these is not like the others :-D

But sure, let's consider an dinosaur killer. So what will happen? A lot of places will lose much of their population, either directly or because of famine. A great deal of land will become nearly empty of humans. But once the nuclear winter is over and the population stabilizes, humans will rebuild.

It might take a while to get back to microprocessor fabs, but the knowledge of e.g. how to make steel and electricity will not be lost. So what if the humanity will be thrown back to the tech level of Victorian England? That was merely a century and a bit ago.

Of course, we're now in movie-plot land.

Comment author: Dagon 06 May 2017 01:18:57AM 0 points [-]

There are lots of potential proximal causes. Root cause likely to be that humans aren't well-suited for the level of peace and scale of cooperation that we've seen for the last few hundred years.

Comment author: Lumifer 06 May 2017 03:37:57PM 1 point [-]

I was trying to get to something less handwavy. "Humans aren't well-suited" isn't it.

And anyway, your line of argument leads to the conclusion that we are just living constantly and permanently in the "post-collapse" state. Past the Golden Age, kicked out of the Garden of Eden, etc. etc.

Comment author: Dagon 06 May 2017 04:34:34PM 0 points [-]

Yeah, I can't predict more concretely than that - the obvious paths are somewhat preventable/recoverable. My intended argument is that we're not past the golden age, we're in a golden age. It may be so golden that it's the last one, or it may be just one of an very long series.

Comment author: Larks 07 May 2017 06:51:11PM 3 points [-]

Cities, with their large and varied-skill workforce, will suffer less than the countryside.

Cities have a large and varied workforce, but many of their skills lie in things that rely on civilisation remaining intact. Tax lawyers, bartenders, yoga instructors, investment bankers etc. all seem like they would be more of a liability than an asset in such a scenario. Whereas the countryside has skills more focused around food production, and a lower population density reduces the risks of food riots.

Comment author: Stuart_Armstrong 07 May 2017 07:30:28PM 0 points [-]

It would be interesting to test this. Scratch that, it would be interesting to look at natural experiments that test these theories; setting up a deliberate test would be a terrible idea.

It's not so much the tax lawyers and yoga instructors, but the population of skilled and flexible people from among which some have become tax lawyers and yoga instructors. These could become cheap accountants and work crew leaders, for instance. Bartenders would still be needed, to dispense drinks to the population; I'm pretty sure there were still bartenders in Berlin, just before it fell to the Red Army.

If I'd reading the Argentine situation correctly, cities fare much better under minor collapses, which makes sense seeing how little agriculture represents in GDP. And, everything being interconnected, this means that the countryside is dependent on the city for tools, fuel, maintenance, knowledge.

It may be different for a larger collapse, but a country will still need an industry, transport, maintenance, a functioning economy (which means ways of allocating resources, including some forms of banking), etc... these things are much more likely to be designed and adapted in cities than in the countryside.

It is possible, thinking about it, that both cities and countryside could suffer immensely, as the cities starve and the countryside is deprived of resources (and then starve for lack of modern agriculture). And there may be a short term vs long term issue; food reserves are practically non-existent for the moment, which is a huge vulnerability.

Comment author: MrMind 09 May 2017 10:01:47AM 0 points [-]

Scratch that, it would be interesting to look at natural experiments that test these theories; setting up a deliberate test would be a terrible idea.

Katrina?

Comment author: Lumifer 09 May 2017 02:46:52PM 0 points [-]

Katrina?

You need larger scale. Something like Russia in 1917-1920 or one of the Chinese famines.

Comment author: SquirrelInHell 04 May 2017 12:27:11PM 2 points [-]

+1

I don't think many people would support the "traditional view" in a direct comparison, but it's probably the case that it persists as some kind of a media illusion. There's always the danger of acting on unendorsed cached thoughts. Good catch.

Comment author: RedMan 13 May 2017 07:03:38PM *  1 point [-]

Assertion: Statement about heavy weapons in OP is incorrect.

In collapse scenarios any entity capable of bringing modern military technology with the attached organizational requirements to bear can and will dominate organizations which cannot.

In many collapse scenarios, political wrangling over who controls the institutions capable of managing that force becomes the dominant struggle. In Venezuela of today, for example, the government is incapable of guaranteeing security or access to reaources for the population at large, but is capable of staying in power. The standard scenario assumes that individuals can win against large, well resourced militaries, this has been true at various times in the past, but is not true today.

The 'bronze age collapse' is instructive, when everyone learned to make iron, barbarians destroyed every hierarchy and the cities fell. Today, any technology that can have a similar effect requires specialist knowledge and access to the fruits of infrastructure (Home-made explosives can be made from common industrial chemicals, but not really from things you can grow in your yard).

Destruction of social infrastructure will not create individual liberty, but it will scatter a bunch of toxic waste that will require even greater levels of development to clean up.

In Flint, MI, institutional collapse was followed by a loss of control of infrastructure, which lead(pun intended) to a collapse of control systems, and the resultant toxic pollution will destroy the population resident there without external intervention.

Bad news all around when entropy wins.

Comment author: ChristianKl 15 May 2017 01:36:16PM 0 points [-]

The standard scenario assumes that individuals can win against large, well resourced militaries, this has been true at various times in the past, but is not true today.

Individuals like Julian Assange or Snowden manage to hit sizable blows against nation states.

In Flint, MI, institutional collapse was followed by a loss of control of infrastructure, which lead(pun intended) to a collapse of control systems, and the resultant toxic pollution will destroy the population resident there without external intervention.

That's not a good description of the system. Flint made a bad decision that resulted in increased lead in the water but the the amount of children with elevated levels of lead was still lower than it was a decade ago.

Comment author: RedMan 22 May 2017 11:23:41PM *  0 points [-]

They certainly swung. I'm not certain that they successfully imposed their will on the activities of the nation states they attacked. Neither of them are comparable to Alaric, one is comparable to https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernard_Délicieux who despite making a big scene, had no immediate or meaningful impact on the institution he rebelled against.

Do you have a better, easier example of what I've described, or do you disagree with the broad statement in addition to the specific example of Flint?

Comment author: bogus 15 May 2017 07:54:43AM *  0 points [-]

The 'bronze age collapse' is instructive, when everyone learned to make iron, barbarians destroyed every hierarchy and the cities fell.

Not sure what your point is here - early iron-smelting cultures were not "uncivilized" in any real sense, they're just understudied! We've even discovered entire sets of royal archives near Hattusa - the Hatti or Hittites being perhaps the most prominent early-iron-age civilization. Indeed, the Iron age itself may have enabled the formation of large, internally-peaceful 'empires' in the longer run - clearly a significant advancement in social organization!

Comment author: RedMan 22 May 2017 11:29:05PM 0 points [-]

Thank you for clarifying, in the long run, there was stability and we do not fully understand it...I believe that my assertion about the transition being messy and involving the collapse of bronze age civilizations rather than their persistence still stands though.

My point is that new developments upended the old social order, and cleared the way for the eventual rise of alternatives. Today, similar levels of destruction will be challenging to recover from, because infrastructure, once trashed, leads to things like the birth defect rate in Fallujah, not just empty space where new things can be built, and battlefields which yiels bumper crops.

Comment author: TheAncientGeek 08 May 2017 01:25:07PM 1 point [-]

Nitpick: cash for cache,.

Comment author: Stuart_Armstrong 08 May 2017 06:11:54PM 0 points [-]

How much are you offering, for how large a cache? ;-)

Cheers!

Comment author: hg00 08 May 2017 05:15:25AM 1 point [-]

Another data point: the existence of prison gangs (typically organized along racial lines).

Comment author: Stuart_Armstrong 08 May 2017 09:39:24AM 2 points [-]

I'm not sure that's a very relevant data point. Prison is very structured, and all the physical needs of the prisoners are guaranteed, and anarchy and fighting is punished, at least to some extent.

Comment author: hg00 13 May 2017 11:29:22PM 1 point [-]

Hm. I think there is a quote in this podcast about how prisoners form prison gangs as a bulwark against anarchy: http://www.econtalk.org/archives/2015/03/david_skarbek_o.html

Comment author: Dagon 04 May 2017 02:45:19PM 1 point [-]

Agree with the initial statement - the most accessible picture of collapse is unlikely. I'm less sure about the probability of your alternate - the space of possibilities is large. Also, timeframe matters. Anarchic collapse may be followed by small-group/warlord dominance.

Comment author: jh49 04 May 2017 06:15:49PM 0 points [-]

avega.org/dgr.pdf might give you some insight into what Orlov and others say about collapse and various scenarios of collapse. not very detailed but well put in social and ecological context.