MathieuRoy comments on 2013 Survey Results - Less Wrong

74 Post author: Yvain 19 January 2014 02:51AM

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Comment author: Vaniver 22 January 2014 06:43:21PM 3 points [-]

Would some people be interested in answering 10 such questions and give their confidence about their answer every month? That would provide better statistics and a way to see if we're improving.

There's both PredictionBook and the Good Judgment Project as venues for this sort of thing.

Comment author: MathieuRoy 26 January 2014 05:06:45PM *  2 points [-]

Thank you.

EDIT: I just made my first (meta)prediction which is that I'm 50% sure that "I will make good predictions in 2014. (ie. 40 to 60% of my predictions with an estimate between 40 and 60% will be true.)"

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