Who's more likely to notice it, some self proclaimed "autodidacts", or normal biochemistry experts? Who noticed the possibility of a nuke, back-then conspiracy theorists or scientists? Was Semmelweis some weird outsider, or was he a regular medical doctor with medical training?
All are good and relevant examples, and they all support the claim in question. Thanks!
But your second paragraph supports the opposite claim. (Again, the claim in question is: Experts are more likely to be concerned over risks than autodidacts are.) In the second paragraph, you give a couple "movie plot" risks, and note that autodidacts are more concerned about them than experts are. Those would therefore be cases of autodidacts being more concerned about risks than experts, right?
If the claim were "Experts have more realistic risk estimates than autodidacts do," then I would readily agree. But you seem to have claimed that autodidacts' risk estimates aren't just wrong--they are biased downward. Is that indeed what you meant to claim, or have I misunderstood you?
What I said was that "autodidacts" (note the scare quotes) are more likely to fail to notice some genuine risk, than the experts are. E.g. if there's some one specific medication that poses risk for a reason X, those anti vaxers are extremely unlikely to spot that, due to the lack of necessary knowledge and skills.
By "autodidacts" in scare quotes I mean interested and somewhat erudite laymen who may have read a lot of books but clearly did very few exercises from university textbooks (edit: or any other feedback providing exercises at all).
So I know we've already seen them buying a bunch of ML and robotics companies, but now they're purchasing Shane Legg's AGI startup. This is after they've acquired Boston Dynamics, several smaller robotics and ML firms, and started their own life-extension firm.
Is it just me, or are they trying to make Accelerando or something closely related actually happen? Given that they're buying up real experts and not just "AI is inevitable" prediction geeks (who shall remain politely unnamed out of respect for their real, original expertise in machine learning), has someone had a polite word with them about not killing all humans by sheer accident?