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jobe_smith comments on Open Thread for February 11 - 17 - Less Wrong
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I participated in an economics experiment a few days ago, and one of the tasks was as follows. Choose one of the following gambles where each outcome has 50% probability Option 1: $4 definitely Option 2: $6 or $3 Option 3: $8 or $2 Option 4: $10 or $1 Option 5: $12 or $0
I choose option 5 as it has the highest expected value. Asymptotically this is the best option but for a single trial, is it still the best option?
In general, picking the highest EV option makes sense, but in the context of what sounds like a stupid/lazy economics experiment, you have a moral duty to do the wrong thing. Perhaps you could have flipped a coin twice to choose among the first 4 options? That way you are providing crappy/useless data and they have to pay you for it!
Why do I have a moral duty to do wrong thing? Shouldn't I act in my own self interest to maximise the amount of money I make?