Follow-up to: Normative uncertainty in Newcomb's problem

Philosophers and atheists break for two-boxing; theists and Less Wrong break for one-boxing
Personally, I would one-box on Newcomb's Problem. Conditional on one-boxing for lawful reasons, one boxing earns $1,000,000, while two-boxing, conditional on two-boxing for lawful reasons, would deliver only a thousand. But this seems to be firmly a minority view in philosophy, and numerous heuristics about expert opinion suggest that I should re-examine the view.

In the PhilPapers survey, Philosophy undergraduates start off divided roughly evenly between one-boxing and two-boxing:

Newcomb's problem: one box or two boxes?

Other	142 / 217 (65.4%)
Accept or lean toward: one box	40 / 217 (18.4%)
Accept or lean toward: two boxes	35 / 217 (16.1%)

But philosophy faculty, who have learned more (less likely to have no opinion), and been subject to further selection, break in favor of two-boxing:

Newcomb's problem: one box or two boxes?

Other	441 / 931 (47.4%)
Accept or lean toward: two boxes	292 / 931 (31.4%)
Accept or lean toward: one box	198 / 931 (21.3%)

Specialists in decision theory (who are also more atheistic, more compatibilist about free will, and more physicalist than faculty in general) are even more convinced:

Newcomb's problem: one box or two boxes?

Accept or lean toward: two boxes	19 / 31 (61.3%)
Accept or lean toward: one box	8 / 31 (25.8%)
Other	4 / 31 (12.9%)

Looking at the correlates of answers about Newcomb's problem, two-boxers are more likely to believe in physicalism about consciousness, atheism about religion, and other positions generally popular around here (which are also usually, but not always, in the direction of philosophical opinion). Zooming in one correlate, most theists with an opinion are one-boxers, while atheists break for two-boxing:

Newcomb's problem:two boxes

0.125

one box

two boxes

atheism

28.6%

(145/506)

48.8%

(247/506)

theism

40.8%

(40/98)

31.6%

(31/98)

Response pairs: 655 p-value: 0.001

Less Wrong breaks overwhelmingly for one-boxing in survey answers for 2012:

NEWCOMB'S PROBLEM
One-box: 726, 61.4%
Two-box: 78, 6.6%
Not sure: 53, 4.5%
Don't understand: 86, 7.3%
No answer: 240, 20.3%

When I elicited LW confidence levels in a poll, a majority indicated 99%+ confidence in one...

Lapsed_Lurker

Lapsed_Lurker

[LINK] SMBC on Confirmation Bias

Lapsed_Lurker

Lapsed_Lurker

[LINK] SMBC on Confirmation Bias