ChristianKl comments on Open Thread for February 18-24 2014 - Less Wrong
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Reality doesn't work that way. In reality most solutions don't explain every clues that you find. A lot of clues are just random noise.
Yes, that was part of my point too. Maximizing P(E|H) at the expense of P(H) is much less likely (in real life) to give you a true solution than maximizing P(H|E) with Bayes, even if some components of P(E|H) are not particularly high (which is normal in real life).