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bramflakes comments on Open Thread for February 18-24 2014 - Less Wrong
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Fair enough. I would still contest that the "nurture" component of these outcomes is smaller than is commonly suggested (Ashkenazim in particular) and that I too would bet money on it.
(Also I'm sorry if I came off as rude before)
You didn't, as far as I am concerned.
(How would we go about making such bets official?)
I don't know how exactly to translate two difference subjective probabilities to a bet structure, but before that we ought to agree on what exactly we're disagreeing over and what the correct answer would look like to determine who wins.
I think that this would necessarily have to be a long-term thing - maybe the scientific consensus X years from now?