Eugine_Nier comments on Self-Congratulatory Rationalism - Less Wrong

51 Post author: ChrisHallquist 01 March 2014 08:52AM

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Comment author: Eugine_Nier 02 March 2014 11:30:33PM 6 points [-]

But shouldn't you always update toward the others position?

That's not how Aumann's theorem works. For example, if Alice mildly believe X and Bob strongly believes X, it may be that Alice has weak evidence for X, and Bob has much stronger independent evidence for X. Thus, after exchanging evidence they'll both believe X even more strongly than Bob did initially.

Comment author: palladias 04 March 2014 03:14:00AM 9 points [-]

Yup!

One related use case is when everyone in a meeting prefers policy X to policy Y, although each are a little concerned about one possible problem. Going around the room and asking everyone how likely they think X is to succeed produces estimates of 80%, so, having achieved consensus, they adopt X.

But, if people had mentioned their particular reservations, they would have noticed they were all different, and that, once they'd been acknowledged, Y was preferred.

Comment author: Viliam_Bur 03 March 2014 01:21:16PM 4 points [-]

Even if they both equally strongly believe X, it makes sense for them to talk whether they both used the same evidence or different evidence.

Comment author: Will_Newsome 14 April 2014 02:26:49AM 2 points [-]
Comment author: Gunnar_Zarncke 03 March 2014 07:36:32AM 0 points [-]

Of course.

I agree that

"Interesting point. I'm not entirely clear how you arrived at that position. I'd like to look up some detail questions on that. Could you provide references I might look at?"

doesn't make clear that the other holds another position and that the reply may just address the validity of the evidence.

But even then shouldn't you see it at least as weak evidence and thus believe X at least a bit more strongly?