Ah. Thanks for clarifying.

I think your proposed explanation for the observed event is underdetermined by the evidence we're discussing, but it could certainly be true.

Nevertheless, I'm still inclined to attend more to how well a practice is observed to constrain anticipated experience than to how rational its practitioners can be inferred to be on general principles... though I'll grant you that inferrable level of rationality correlates pretty well to how much energy I'll devote to making the observations in the first place.