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Eliezer_Yudkowsky comments on How to Convince Me That 2 + 2 = 3 - Less Wrong

53 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 27 September 2007 11:00PM

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Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 28 September 2007 02:55:27AM 4 points [-]

Lee, the situations I talked about for convincing me that "2 + 2 = 3" could only actually occur if 2 + 2 actually equalled three within the realm of the integers. This is right and proper: why should I allow myself to be convinced by something that would not be valid evidence?

I do not, therefore, ever expect myself to actually encounter any of these situations, because I currently believe that 2 + 2 = 4.

If I expected to encounter such evidence in the future, the expectation of my probable future probability estimates must equal my present probability estimate, so I would have to not really believe that 2 + 2 = 4 in order to expect to encounter evidence that 2 + 2 = 3.