I think the "transparent Newcomb" version of the blue-sky scenario is more well-known? Might want to point that out.

There is a much more principled possibility, which I'll call pseudo-Bayesian decision theory, or PBDT. PBDT can be seen as re-interpreting updating as saying that you're indifferent about what happens in possible worlds in which you don't exist as a conscious observer, rather than ruling out those worlds as impossible given your evidence.

I can't follow the math but this feels like it'd inexorably lead to Quantum Suicide.