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buybuydandavis comments on The Rationality Wars - Less Wrong
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Comments (41)
people who they voted for < who they predicted would win < bet on who would win, where '<' indicates predictive accuracy.
Because, the first is signaling about yourself and perhaps trying to sway others, the second is probably just swaying others, and the third is trying to make money.
It's a testament to a demented culture that people are lying about how they vote.
This is exactly what I was saying.
Yes, I meant it as a paraphrase.
More common than lying about how they vote is falsely believing that they voted other than they did.