Desrtopa comments on The Rationality Wars - Less Wrong

18 Post author: Stefan_Schubert 27 February 2014 05:08PM

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Comment author: Desrtopa 04 March 2014 02:26:36AM 0 points [-]

If presented with an opportunity to believe that other people are like you, with no penalty for being wrong, one could expect people will err on the side of predicting behavior consistent with one's own behavior.

I obviously haven't done this experiment, but I suspect that if the subjects asked to wear the sign were offered a cash incentive based on their accuracy of prediction for others, both groups would make a more accurate prediction.

Possibly. But if you're prepared to bet that the bias would vanish in that context, that's a bet I'd take.

Comment author: Tedav 04 March 2014 03:14:17AM 0 points [-]

I'm not prepared to make that bet.

I don't suspect the bias would vanish, but rather be diminished.