CCC comments on Open Thread: March 4 - 10 - Less Wrong
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At the moment I, too, am reluctant to try jumping off a bridge, for similar reasons. However, if I had jumped off a bridge and inexplicably survived, I would weigh that experience very heavily in future decisions with regard to whether or not to jump off bridges.
I don't ignore other people's reported experiences; I just consider my own experiences a far more reliable indicator of reality. This is partially because other people's experiences are by necessity incomplete; it's very hard for me to be sure that someone else has told me every detail that I would consider important about a given situation.
No. I am merely in no position to compel your belief in the proposition, and etiquette requires that I should not claim that the question is resolved in my favour. (Which it isn't). My options at this point are to either go out and gather evidence, or to drop the question entirely.
As I understand it, etiquette does permit you to assume that the question is resolved in favour of the null hypothesis; but without proof, you cannot compel my disbelief in the proposition.
I don't discard all the others; I simply consider them less probable than the miracle hypothesis. And the reason for that is that a number of people whose job involves the investigation of miracles, and who have looked far more deeply into the matter than I have (and who would not benefit from incorrectly calling something a miracle and having it later revealedd as a mistake or a fraud) consider it a miracle. In short, I place my confidence in the hands of those I recognise as experts in the field.
That said experts were also largely members of the Catholic clergy does not diminish my confidence in their results, though it may affect yours.
No. Again, people have detected His actions. Consider Moses, for example; when Moses approached the burning bush, he detected God's actions.
Or consider the monk present at the Miracle of Lanciano; when he saw the bread and wine literally transform into flesh and blood, he detected God's actions.
If it is completely undetectable by any means, then yes, it can have no effect. But something can be hard to detect while still having a great effect.
Consider, for example, a man living on a mountaintop. He finds it very easy to detect the stars; he sees them often. But they have little to no effect on him. On the other hand, he finds it very hard to detect the radioactivity of the rocks around him (he would need to go to the trouble of getting a geiger counter); but if the rocks are signifiantly radioactive, that could potentially have a very large long-term effect on him.
So, while I agree that something has to be detectable in order to have any effect (on the basis that it can be detected by its effect), it is nonetheless possible for something to be hard to detect while having a very large effect.