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RowanE comments on Open Thread March 31 - April 7 2014 - Less Wrong
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What I meant by "50/50 for each hypothesis" was the conditional probabilities for each being the same, so I don't think we disagree very much there, except that I intuitively feel that meeting the simulator and having him try to convince you you're in a simulation really should be evidence that prefers the hypothesis that you're in a simulation.