Recovering_irrationalist comments on Congratulations to Paris Hilton - Less Wrong
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Comments (96)
This isn't an attack on cryonics or Eliezer (I'm in favour of them), just venting frustration at a bias he's quite frustrated with himself that tends to pop up when very smart people predict the future. This is a biases blog after all. To be kinder/less pedantic just replace each "can't" with "won't", it's still pretty bad.
Anyone not signed up for cryonics has now lost the right to make fun of Paris Hilton, because no matter what else she does wrong, and what else you do right, all of it together can't outweigh the life consequences of that one little decision.
That implies...
...can't fail to all come out as true.
That's just for one reader. For all readers, multiply the probabilities of #1, #5 and #7 for Mr Average Reader, times that probability by itself once per reader, then times that by the probabilities for the other 5 points.
I'm simplifying for brevity (for example there's at least 3 reasons you can't just multiply for the average reader) but you get the idea. Care to bet on Eliezer's Wager? :-)
I'm relatively new to all this so sorry if I did something daft.