gjm comments on Open thread, 25-31 August 2014 - Less Wrong

4 Post author: jaime2000 25 August 2014 11:14AM

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Comment author: gjm 26 August 2014 01:09:03AM *  0 points [-]

[...] is a true statement coming from math logic, [...] is a false statement coming from human interaction

My reading of polymer's statement is that he wasn't using "plausible" as a psychological term, but as a rough synonym for "probable". (polymer, if you're reading: Was I right?)

P(B|A) = 1 which makes A and B essentially the same

No, P(B|A) is a little less than 1 because Beth might have read the email carelessly, or forgotten bits of it.

[EDITED to add: If whoever downvoted this would care to explain what they found objectionable about it, I'd have more chance of fixing it. It looks obviously innocuous to me even on rereading. Thanks!]

Comment author: polymer 31 August 2014 09:06:21PM *  0 points [-]

I'm not quite sure what the following means:

if you add details to a story, it becomes less plausible" is a false statement coming from human interaction.

I don't care whether it's false as a "human interaction". I care whether the idea can be modeled by probabilities.

Is my usage of the word plausible in this way really that confusing? I'd like to know why... Probable, likely, credible, plausible, are all (rough) synonyms to me.

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