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I wasn't aware of the Android app.
On the other hand the existence doesn't mean that a new attempt at the same problem is worthless. I think it's very valuable to have multiple people try to solve the problem.
To me it seems like a much more interesting project than having another go at writing an app to parse an online forum. There are few people thinking in depth about designing apps to teach people to be calibrated.
The fact that you have a smartphone also allows additional questions:
You can ask calibration questions such as:
Did John or Joe send you more emails in the last year?
Is the air pressure more or less than X?
Is the temperature of the smart phone battery more or less than X?
Does this arrow point more North or more South?"
Is the distance between your work location and where you are at the moment more or less than X?
Is the distance between your home location and where you are at the moment more or less than X?
Is the distance between where John lives and where you are at the moment more or less than X?
What was the average speed at which you where traveling in the last minute (if you sit in public transportation)
Is the average pitch of the background noise over the last minute more or less than X?
Is the longest email that you received in the past week more or less than X characters long?
What's the chance that you will get a call today?"
Is the average of beeminder value X that you tracked over the last week (month) more or less than X?
All those questions are more interesting then whether postmaster general X served before or after postmaster general Y or the boiling temperatures of various metals. Building an app around the issue might be more complicated than simply providing an new interface for LessWrong, but the payoff for getting Credence training right is also so much higher.
Even if you simply focus on building a beeminder history credence game that might not be too complicated but really useful. Too me it feels like a waste to have valuable development resources wasted on building a Lesswrong app when there are much more valuable projects.
A personal prediction book?
Simple version: You provide your own predictions, and state your credence. Later you say whether you were right or wrong. The app displays statistics of your calibration.
This is simple in essence, but there will be many design decisions, and many little details that can make the UI better. For example, I guess you should choose the credence from, say, 50%, 60%, 70%, 80%, 90%, 95%, and 99%, instead of typing your own value, because this way it will be easier to make statistics. Also, choosing one option is easier than typing two d... (read more)