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Jiro comments on A discussion of heroic responsibility - Less Wrong
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This assumes that you're perfect at figuring out the probability that you can beat the status quo. Human beings are pretty bad at this.
No, it doesn't. If you're uncertain about your own reasoning, discount the weight of your own evidence proportionally, and use the new value. In heuristic terms: err on the side of caution, by a lot if the price of failure is high.