The AI would need to know natural language to be of any use or else it will miss most of the relevant data. I suppose Watson is pretty close to that and have read that it's tested in some hospitals. I wonder how this is implemented. I suspect doctors carry a lot more data in their heads than is readily apparent and much of this data will never make it to their notes and thus to the computerized records.
This is the reason Watson is a game-changer, despite expert prediction systems (using linear regression!) performing at the level of expert humans for ~50 years. Doctors may carry a lot of information in their heads, but I've yet to meet a person that's able to mentally invert matrices of non-trivial size, which helps quite a bit with determining the underlying structure of the data and how best to use it.
Taking a history, evaluating it's reliability and using the senses to observe the patients are something machines can't do for quite some time.
I think machines have several comparative advantages here. An AI with basic conversational functions can take a history, and is better at evaluating some parts of the reliability and worse at others. It can compare with 'other physicians' more easily, or check public records, but probably can't determine whether or not it's a coherent narrative as easily ("What is Toronto?"). A webcam can measure pulse rate just by looking, and so I suspect it'll be about as good at detecting deflection and lying as the average doctor. (I don't remember seeing doctors as being particularly good at lie-detection, but it's been a while since I've read any of the lie-detection literature.)
I could never take the approach of jumping from a hospital to hospital now that I've experienced this first hand.
Note that if the AI is sufficiently broadly used (here I'm imagining, say, the NHS in the UK using just one) then everyone will always have access to a doctor that's known them as long as they've been in the system.
despite expert prediction systems (using linear regression!) performing at the level of expert humans for ~50 years.
Is this because using them is incredibly slow or something else?
A webcam can measure pulse rate just by looking, and so I suspect it'll be about as good at detecting deflection and lying as the average doctor. (I don't remember seeing doctors as being particularly good at lie-detection, but it's been a while since I've read any of the lie-detection literature.)
Lies make no sense medically, or make too much sense. Once I've spotted a fe...
[Originally posted to my personal blog, reposted here with edits.]
Introduction
Something Impossible
The Well-Functioning Gear
Recursive Heroic Responsibility
Heroic responsibility for average humans under average conditions
I can predict at least one thing that people will say in the comments, because I've heard it hundreds of times–that Swimmer963 is a clear example of someone who should leave nursing, take the meta-level responsibility, and do something higher impact for the usual. Because she's smart. Because she's rational. Whatever.
Fine. This post isn't about me. Whether I like it or not, the concept of heroic responsibility is now a part of my value system, and I probably am going to leave nursing.
But what about the other nurses on my unit, the ones who are competent and motivated and curious and really care? Would familiarity with the concept of heroic responsibility help or hinder them in their work? Honestly, I predict that they would feel alienated, that they would assume I held a low opinion of them (which I don't, and I really don't want them to think that I do), and that they would flinch away and go back to the things that they were doing anyway, the role where they were comfortable–or that, if they did accept it, it would cause them to burn out. So as a consequentialist, I'm not going to tell them.
And yeah, that bothers me. Because I'm not a special snowflake. Because I want to live in a world where rationality helps everyone. Because I feel like the reason they would react that was isn't because of anything about them as people, or because heroic responsibility is a bad thing, but because I'm not able to communicate to them what I mean. Maybe stupid reasons. Still bothers me.