Dagon comments on The Hostile Arguer - Less Wrong

32 Post author: Error 27 November 2014 12:30AM

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Comment author: Dagon 27 November 2014 07:46:35PM 6 points [-]

Which leads to reminder of a common failure on these topics: use of "believe" in a confusing way. For many mind-killing topics, don't focus on epistemology - it's really not easy to get enough agreement on terms that a useful discussion can be had. Instead, focus on predictions.

Not "why do you believe X", but "what do you predict will happen based on X".

Comment author: Error 28 November 2014 04:44:39AM *  1 point [-]

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This sounds like an excellent way of cutting through mindkill. If there's not a post on it somewhere, I think there should be.

[ETA: Bit of a brain fart, sorry. This is making arguments pay rent in the same sense that one should make beliefs pay rent.]

Comment author: [deleted] 28 November 2014 03:24:51PM 0 points [-]

I think there's at least half a dozen of Eliezer's old founding posts that make explicit reference to this concept: real belief has to include likelihood functions.