Alsadius comments on Open thread, Dec. 1 - Dec. 7, 2014 - Less Wrong

3 Post author: MrMind 01 December 2014 08:29AM

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Comment author: Alsadius 04 December 2014 05:41:54PM 1 point [-]

"Weak" means that it doesn't change your beliefs very much - if the prior probability is 50%, and the posterior probability is 51%, calling it weak evidence seems pretty natural. But it still helps improve your estimates.

Comment author: Lumifer 04 December 2014 05:58:47PM 0 points [-]

But it still helps improve your estimates.

Only if it's actually good evidence and you interpret it correctly. Another plausible interpretation of "weak" is "uncertain".

Consider a situation where you unknowingly decided to treat some noise as evidence. It's weak and it only changed your 50% prior to a 51% posterior, but it did not improve your estimate.