passive_fist comments on Open thread, Dec. 15 - Dec. 21, 2014 - Less Wrong

2 Post author: Gondolinian 15 December 2014 12:01AM

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Comment author: passive_fist 15 December 2014 09:36:10AM 4 points [-]

Is there some resource (for instance, in the LW sequences) where I can redirect people to get a quick, clean view into the Bayesian worldview of doing things, especially in science? When I read people say things like "Consensus doesn't matter in science!" I want to respond with "Well, consensus isn't everything, but being informed about the agreement in opinion of a large number of authorities in a subject should make you update your beliefs" but I find it hard to do that without then having to explain what "update your beliefs" actually means.

Comment author: ChristianKl 15 December 2014 04:55:28PM 5 points [-]

People don't change their views about fundamental issues such as how they deal with knowledge quickly.

As far as articles go, Yvain's article http://slatestarcodex.com/2013/08/06/on-first-looking-into-chapmans-pop-bayesianism/ is good.

Comment author: RichardKennaway 15 December 2014 12:30:42PM 3 points [-]

I find it hard to do that without then having to explain what "update your beliefs" actually means.

"Change your mind"? "Take that on board"?

Comment author: gjm 15 December 2014 05:16:59PM 2 points [-]

I think "change your mind" is too specific; in common parlance it's used only for major changes, such as going from thinking "probably X" to "probably not-X".

Comment author: chaosmage 15 December 2014 06:27:25PM 0 points [-]

"Consider the balance of evidence"?

Comment author: cameroncowan 16 December 2014 11:56:33PM 0 points [-]

One the hardest things for people to do is change the way they believe the world is structured because psychologically there lies an aspect of death or non-existence. It is very hard for most people to do.