I agree that is what he meant in this post. I should have phrased my comment more clearly. But that doesn't answer my confusion: the other post doesn't talk about either kind of randomness.

As for reality, I think that people people pursue these dreams because they really were the best in their high school. Maybe they became the best in high school because they pursued it earlier because it was arbitrarily reinforced much earlier in life. But that random step seems to me a different, earlier step than the topic of the other post.