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FrameBenignly comments on 2014 Survey Results - Less Wrong
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Something else I noticed:
Agnostic: 156, 10.4% Lukewarm theist: 44, 2.9% Deist/pantheist/etc.: 22,, 1.5% Committed theist: 60, 4.0%
A true agnostic should be 50% on the probability of God, but we'll say 25-75% as reasonable. A lukewarm theist should be 50-100%. I don't like the deist wording, but we'll say 50-100% for them, and 75-100% for the committed theists. We then get:
10.4.25+2.9.5+1.5.5+4.75 = 7.8% P God as our lower bound Compared to the 8.26% actual
That's assuming all the atheists assigned a 0% probability to God. So it seems everybody is very close to their minimum on this; even likely below the minimum for some of them. My guess is a lot of people have some major inconsistencies in their views on God's existence.
1319 people supplied a probability of God that was not blank or "idk" or the equivalent thereof as well as a non-blank religion. I was going to do results for both religious views and religious background, but religious background was a write-in so no thanks.
Literally every group had at least one member who supplied a P(God) of 0 and a P(God) of 100.
Okay, I'll bite: What does someone mean when they say they are Atheist, and they think P(God) = 100% ?
According to Descartes: for any X, P(X exists | X is taking the survey) = 100%, and also that 100% certainty of anything on the part of X is only allowed in this particular case.
Therefore, if X says they are Atheist, and that P(God exists | X is taking the survey) = 100%, then X is God, God is taking the survey, and happens to be an Atheist.
Either they're actually a misotheist, or they're using a nonstandard definition of "God" or of "atheist" (though I think at least the former was defined on the survey), or they misunderstood the question, or they're trolling.
Presumably "Yeah, God exists, but why should I care?". Or trolling/misunderstanding the question.
Wouldn't that be the very definition of a deist or an agnostic, instead of an atheist?
I didn't say that they were good at defining terms.