JoshuaZ comments on February 2015 Media Thread - Less Wrong
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Comments (138)
The wrong aspect about this is that it seems very unlikely to actually stay that restricted. And it may not at all be easy for a country to tell that another launched only a few nukes and isn't intending to use more. The standard way this sort of thing goes wrong is where the exchanges get pushed farther East and West until they are close to Moscow and Paris and then all hell more or less breaks loose.
That seems likely to be true, but how much influence do they have? And note that even with Putin's repeated mentions of nukes they haven't taken any steps to curtail the situation. A nuclear exchange if it started could start well before they had a chance to do much about it.
I don't know -- my level of uncertainty about what's going to be "likely" or "unlikely" in the event of a limited nuclear exchange is very high :-/
The question at this point will be not "influence" but "capability" -- will they be able to remove Putin and those personally loyal to him at any cost from power? I think it's "likely" but see the previous paragraph :-)