Some economists tell me, “Yes, all our models, data, and analysis and experience for the last 40 years say fiscal stimulus doesn’t work, but don’t you really believe it anyway?” This is an astonishing attitude. How can a scientist “believe” something different than what he or she spends a career writing and teaching?
I think a lot of people don't really believe the scientific statements they profess. They know they are supposed to say that "F = ma", for example, but then when you ask them to predict the movement of an object in space, they'll do so based on their intuitive notion that objects slow down unless you keep pushing them. They know very well what the science says, but they don't think it applies to reality. Or to give an example that frustrated me for many years, my father was a neuroscientist, whose day-to-day work relied in part on knowing the shapes of molecules, which of course relies on quantum physics. Yet he said, privately to me, said that quantum physics was all nonsense. He would never have said such a thing publicly, because it would have hurt his career.
Broadly speaking, I think the attitude in the quote is very widespread. The models, data, analysis and experience ('Science') say one thing, so they know they have to profess it. But people secretly believe the opposite, and will look to act on their true beliefs if given the chance. It's not just science, religion too, but I don't want to get into that.
I wonder how many of those "some economists" there really are. I know that, e.g., Paul Krugman, one of Cochrane's leading ideological opponents, vigorously denies that all models, data and experience say fiscal stimulus doesn't work. Cochrane's response is to suggest, inter alia, that Krugman doesn't really believe it either. I suppose he might be correct, but it seems more plausible to me that ideological differences are getting in the way of Cochrane having a good mental model of Krugman and other stimulus proponents. (In a similar way, many th...
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