Jayson_Virissimo comments on Rationality Quotes Thread March 2015 - Less Wrong

8 Post author: Vaniver 02 March 2015 11:38PM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (233)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: Jayson_Virissimo 05 March 2015 05:11:25PM *  -2 points [-]

Because it is often easy to detect the operation of motivated belief formation in others, we tend to disbelieve the conclusions reached in this way, without pausing to see whether the evidence might in fact justify them. Until around 2009 I believed, with most of my friends, that on a scale of danger from 0 to 10 (the most dangerous), global warming scored around 7 or 8. Since the recent revelations I believe that 10 is the appropriate number. The reason for my misperception of the evidence was not an idealistic belief that economic growth could have no downsides. In that case, I would simply have been victim of wishful thinking or self-deception. Rather, I was misled by the hysterical character of those who claimed all along that global warming scored 10. My ignorance of their claims was not entirely irrational. On average, it makes sense to discount the claims of the manifestly hysterical. Yet even hysterics can be right, albeit for the wrong reasons. Because I sensed and still believe that many of these fierce environmentalists would have said the same regardless of the evidence, I could not believe that what they said did in fact correspond to the evidence. I made the mistake of thinking of them as a clock that is always one hour late rather than as a broken clock that shows the right time twice a day.

Jane Elmer, Explaining Anti-Social Behavior: More Amps and Volts for the Social Sciences

EDIT: In case it wasn't clear, I disagree that "it is often easy to detect the operation of motivated belief formation in others". Also, when your opponents strongly believe that they are right and are trying to prevent a great harm (whether they have good arguments or not), this often feels from the inside like they are "manifestly hysterical".

Comment author: arundelo 05 March 2015 05:18:26PM *  2 points [-]

Or just:

Until around 1990 I believed, with most of my friends, that on a scale of evil from 0 to 10 (the worst), [$POLITICAL_BELIEF] scored around 7 or 8. Since the recent revelations I believe that 10 is the appropriate number. The reason for my misperception of the evidence was not an idealistic belief that [$POLITICAL_BELIEF] was a worthy ideal that had been betrayed by actual [proponents of $POLITICAL_BELIEF]. In that case, I would simply have been victim of wishful thinking or self-deception. Rather, I was misled by the hysterical character of those who claimed all along that [$POLITICAL_BELIEF] scored 10. My ignorance of their claims was not entirely irrational. On average, it makes sense to discount the claims of the manifestly hysterical. Yet even hysterics can be right, albeit for the wrong reasons. Because I sensed and still believe that many of these fierce [opponents of $POLITICAL_BELIEF] would have said the same regardless of the evidence, I could not believe that what they said did in fact correspond to the evidence.

Comment author: Lumifer 05 March 2015 05:27:35PM -2 points [-]

I do appreciate the correct classification of global warming as a political belief :-D

Comment author: arundelo 05 March 2015 06:09:45PM 3 points [-]

I was substituting "[$POLITICAL_BELIEF]" for "Communism", which is what Pablo_Stafforini's quote referred to.

But I could also use it for "global warming" without making a statement against anthropogenic climate change, considering that even people who believe the science on climate change is mostly settled can also believe that

  • climate change is political in the "Politics is the Mind-Killer" sense
  • how we should respond to climate change is in large part a political question
Comment author: Jiro 05 March 2015 08:17:57PM *  0 points [-]

How is having a paragraph that applies to [$POLITICAL_BELIEF] not the same as making a fully general argument?

Or are you just saying that the original statement about Communism was a fully general argument?

Comment author: arundelo 05 March 2015 09:35:24PM 1 point [-]

I'm saying that I think the original quote (which I did think was good) would have been improved qua Rationality Quote by removing the specific political content from it. (Much like the "Is Nixon a pacifist?" problem would have been improved by coming up with an example that didn't involve Republicans.)

Comment author: Pablo_Stafforini 06 March 2015 12:09:59AM *  3 points [-]

I think the problems associated with providing concrete political examples are in this case mitigated by the author's decision to criticize people on opposite sides of the political debate (Soviet communists and hysterical anti-communists), and by the author's admission that his former political beliefs were mistaken to a certain degree.

Comment author: arundelo 06 March 2015 01:22:32AM 1 point [-]

True.