Bound_up comments on Open Thread, Jun. 8 - Jun. 14, 2015 - Less Wrong

4 Post author: Gondolinian 08 June 2015 12:04AM

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Comment author: Bound_up 14 June 2015 10:01:11PM 1 point [-]

Kindly, indeed.

Thank you. I believe I've got it down now.

Prior:1/101

Test: Correct positive 95%

False positive 20%

1 of the 101 has the disease, with 95% probability of receiving a positive reading, denoting 1 x .95 = .95

And 100 don't have the disease, each with a 20% probability of a positive reading, denoting 100 x .2=20

.95 + 20 = 20.95

.95 / 20.95 = .045, denoting a 4.5% chance that someone receiving a positive reading has the disease.

Thank you again :)