RolfAndreassen comments on Open Thread, Jun. 29 - Jul. 5, 2015 - Less Wrong

5 Post author: Gondolinian 29 June 2015 12:14AM

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Comment author: RolfAndreassen 02 July 2015 09:22:34PM 2 points [-]

You take the probability of A not happening and multiply by the probability of B not happening. That gives you P(not A and not B). Then subtract that from 1. The probability of at least one of two events happening is just one minus the probability of neither happening.

In your example of 23% and 48%, the probability of getting at least one is

1 - (1-0.23)*(1-0.48) = 0.60.

Comment author: VincentYu 03 July 2015 01:20:06AM 3 points [-]

You take the probability of A not happening and multiply by the probability of B not happening. That gives you P(not A and not B).

Only if A and B are independent.