Lumifer comments on Open Thread, Jul. 27 - Aug 02, 2015 - Less Wrong
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Yes, that is precisely the issue for me here. Essentially, you have to specify a loss function and then aggregate it. It's unclear what kind will work best here and what that "best" even means.
Yes, thank you, that's useful.
Notably, Philip Tetlock in his Expert Political Judgement project uses Brier scoring.