ike comments on Don't You Care If It Works? - Part 1 - Less Wrong

4 Post author: Jacobian 29 July 2015 02:32PM

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Comment author: ike 29 July 2015 09:41:27PM 0 points [-]

Now you are going to tell me that in 99% of the cases your estimate will be wrong

No. Your calibration is still perfect if your priors are perfect. You can only get to that "99% chance of getting strong evidence for hypothesis" if you're already very sure of that hypothesis math here