ike comments on Don't You Care If It Works? - Part 1 - Less Wrong

4 Post author: Jacobian 29 July 2015 02:32PM

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Comment author: ike 09 August 2015 01:30:22PM 0 points [-]

Okay, so I think I worked out where my failed intuition got it from. The Bayes facter is the ratio of posterior/prior for hypothesis a, divided by the ratio for hypothesis B. The top of that is expected to be 1 (because the expected posterior over the prior is one, factoring out the prior in each case keeps that fraction constant), and the bottom is also (same argument), but the expected ratio of two numbers expected to be one is not always one. So my brain turned "denominator and numerator one" into "ratio one".