Eliezer_Yudkowsky comments on But There's Still A Chance, Right? - Less Wrong

44 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 06 January 2008 01:56AM

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Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 07 January 2008 12:20:49AM 4 points [-]

Nominull: It seems like it should be impossible to calculate a fudge factor into your calculations to account for the possibility that your calculations are totally wrong, because once you calculate it in it becomes part of your calculations, which could be totally wrong.

But wrong in which direction? If you don't know, it cancels out of the expectation of the probability. You just have to achieve a state where your meta-uncertainty seems balanced between both sides. Don't worry about justifying it to anyone, and particularly not justifying it to an ideal philosopher of perfect emptiness. Just give it your honest best shot, as a guesser.