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aarongertler comments on Open thread, Aug. 17 - Aug. 23, 2015 - Less Wrong
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I took part in the Good Judgment Project, a giant prediction market study from Philip Tetlock (of "Foxes and Hedgehogs" theory). I also blogged about my results, and the heuristics I used to make bets:
http://aarongertler.net/good-judgment-project/
I thought it might be of interest to a few people -- I originally learned that I could join the GJP from someone I met at CFAR.
I love your heuristics! They could be all summed up as: the world has inertia.