Wes_W comments on Absolute Authority - Less Wrong

44 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 08 January 2008 03:33AM

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Comment author: Wes_W 08 August 2014 09:37:45PM 0 points [-]

P(A|C) = P(C|A)P(A)/P(C)=(.50.75)/(.75.50+.25*0)=1

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Well huh. I suppose I ought to concede that point.

There are probabilities of 0 and (implicitly) 1 in the problem setup. I'm not confident it's valid to start with that; I worry it just pushes the problem back a step. But clearly, it is at least possible for probabilities of 1 to propagate to other propositions which did not start at 1. I'll have to think about it for a while.