CCC comments on Absolute Authority - Less Wrong

44 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 08 January 2008 03:33AM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (72)

Sort By: Old

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: CCC 09 August 2014 05:39:51AM 0 points [-]

You're mixing it up with P(A|C). However, if you switch A and C in your paragraph, it becomes a valid critique, which I've fixed, substituting the correct values in. Thanks.

You're right, I had that backwards.

(Did I mess anything else up?)

Hmmm....

P(F)=.20

P(F)= P(D)*.95+P(C)*.001=0.119125

You have two different values for P(F). Similarly, the value P(E)=0.70 does not match up with P(C), P(D) and the following:

P(memory of X | X happened yesterday)=.95

P(memory of X | X didn't happen yesterday)=.001

None of which is going to affect your point, which seems to come down to the claim that there exist possible events A, B, C, D, E and F such that P(A|C) = 1.