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Bound_up comments on 0 And 1 Are Not Probabilities - Less Wrong

34 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 10 January 2008 06:58AM

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Comment author: Bound_up 20 August 2015 03:23:35PM *  1 point [-]

I think he's just acknowledging the minute(?) possibility that our apparently flawless reasoning could have a blind spot. We could be in a Matrix, or have something tampering with our minds, etcetera, such that the implied assertion:

If this appears absolutely certain to me

Then it must be true

is indefensible.

Comment author: Lumifer 20 August 2015 03:43:59PM 0 points [-]

There are two different things.

David_Bolin said (emphasis mine): "He is saying that in the subjective sense, people don't actually have absolute certainty." I am interpreting this as "people never subjectively feel they have absolute certainty about something" which I don't think is true.

You are saying that from an external ("objective") point of view, people can not (or should not) be absolutely sure that their beliefs/conclusions/maps are true. This I easily agree with.

Comment author: David_Bolin 20 August 2015 07:08:55PM 0 points [-]

It should probably be defined by calibration: do some people have a type of belief where they are always right?

Comment author: Lumifer 20 August 2015 07:36:53PM -1 points [-]

Self-referential and anthropic things would probably qualify, e.g. "I believe I exist".

Comment author: StellaAthena 20 August 2015 08:33:17PM -1 points [-]

You can phrase statements of logical deduction such that they have no premises and only conclusions. If we let S be the set of logical principles under which our logical system operates and T be some sentence that entails Y, then S AND T implies Y is something that I have absolute certainty in, even if this world is an illusion, because the premise of the implication contains all the rules necessary to derive the result.

A less formal example of this would be the sentence: If the rules of logic as I know them hold and the axioms of mathematics are true, then it is the case that 2+2=4