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gjm comments on Open thread 7th september - 13th september - Less Wrong
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The Pr(get killed) figures were intended to be long-term. "If I stay here, there's a 10% chance that eventually I'll get killed". Delaying departure by a few months wouldn't make a very big difference to that.
("Long-term" is relative, of course. For a country in as much turmoil as Syria, who knows what might be happening in 10 years?)
I agree that scenarios like mine are made much less plausible if it's only Europe that has disproportionately many men turning up.
I guess we have a different understanding of what makes a bona fide refugee.
In my opinion, a refugee is someone who is forced to flee because of imminent danger. "A few months" make a huge difference.
"I live in a bad place, I'd better move, but a few months here or there won't make much of a difference" creates a migrant, not a refugee.
OK, so for me someone who leaves a place because they aren't safe there is a refugee rather than a migrant (or: as well as a migrant, but I would generally prefer to use the more informative term) even if the danger isn't imminent.
If I live in a community where people of my ethnicity or religion or eye colour or whatever are being murdered at a rate that means I'll probably last five years, that's a serious threat and I need to get the hell out of there even though a couple of months' extra time there doesn't make a huge difference to the likelihood of death.
This depends on what "huge" means. If you're not likely to live five years, your chance of death in a few months isn't huge in comparison to 100% or 50%, but it's still huge in comparison to the average person's chance of death.
Sure. I wasn't the one who characterized my scenario by saying "a few months here or there won't make much of a difference". Nor does anything in that scenario require that to be true.